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How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell

Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. . Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action.

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC.

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). Reasons for such adjustments include:

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it.

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

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Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’). Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

How the Opening Line Is Made

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks.

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

RJ Bell

© 2006


The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years.

Why the Line Changes

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public

How You Can Find Foreclosed Homes

The site offers a one-week free trial, then it’s by subscription.

Look in the legal notices pages of your local paper to spot legitimate auctioneers advertising courthouse steps auctions in your area. They will know how to target the bank-owned properties that are posted on the Multiple Listing Service.

Sometimes, after a bank has already bought properties back on the courthouse steps, it will hold another auction to try to move several properties at once. is a foreclosure education and listing service. It’s just another way of marketing a property. Roughly a quarter of the homes on the market right now are bank-owned. (Do it this way to avoid fake auctioneers and auctions.) Then check those auctioneers’ websites for listings.

The real estate website lists properties for sale and lets you filter your home search to look just for foreclosure properties.

Hire a buyer’s agent who specializes — or at least has experience — in foreclosed homes. One way to find these lists is to search the name of the bank and the term “REO,” which stands for “Real Estate Owned” and means bank-owned.

Here are some legitimate options:

Hudson and Marshall

Click here to return to the “Good Morning America” website.

Click HERE for a list of the 10 states with the deepest discounts on foreclosed homes.

If you’re interested in trying to save money by buying a foreclosed home, half the battle is finding the listings. But quick online searches reveal lots of questionable companies posting old listings or charging big bucks for them.

REDC (Real Estate Disposition Corporation)

Williams and Williams . Oh, they’re out there. Three of the biggest auction companies that do these bank-owned property auctions are:

Click HERE for more advice on buying foreclosed homes.

Some banks list their inventory of properties on their websites

The Washington insiders who work to get Chinese deals approved | Reuters

BGR declined to comment, while Podesta did not respond to requests for comment. hard-disk maker Western Digital Corp (WDC.O) on a proposed investment by China’s Unisplendour Corp Ltd (000938.SZ) that was abandoned this week amid CFIUS concerns.

It has all boosted corporate demand for former officials who served on CFIUS or have knowledge of the inner workings of the agency, several lawyers, consultants and lobbyists involved in the advisory work told Reuters.

Lobbying firms, including Podesta Group and BGR Group, both of whom boast CFIUS experts on their websites, seek to persuade lawmakers and U.S. But the Chinese government’s encouragement of outbound deal-making has spurred many of the country’s companies to spend on advisors, including CFIUS experts, these people say.

Chinese bids for technology and chip makers get particular scrutiny, CFIUS experts say. companies approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which scrutinizes deals for national security concerns.

This CFIUS advisory business is also benefiting from Chinese companies’ new willingness to spend on advisors.

CFIUS concerns also killed other semiconductor deals in the past few weeks. Some are brought in by corporate competitors to lobby against a deal, while others are tapped by investors making bets on whether a transaction will be cleared by CFIUS. Management consulting firms, such as Accenture Plc (ACN.N) and Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd, offer to help companies address national security risks identified by CFIUS. lawmakers urged CFIUS to take a hard look at a bid by Chongqing Casin Enterprise Group to buy the Chicago Stock Exchange because of concerns that China would gain access to information about U.S. “The CFIUS process is going to be a full-body X-ray of the target,” he said.

“We’re just completely overwhelmed,” said one lawyer involved in advising on the CFIUS process, who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak with the media.

China’s aggressive, often state-backed overseas buying spree has set off alarm bells among some politicians in Washington who are already on edge as China’s armed forces expand their presence in the South China Sea and because of high-profile hacking attacks against U.S. Her role at law firm Stroock & Stroock & Lavan LLP has included advising a Chinese private equity firm on the acquisition of some semiconductor-related assets. politicians have also began to agitate over some of these deals. Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc (FCS.O) earlier this month rejected an acquisition offer from China Resources Microelectronics Ltd CHRMI.UL and Hua Capital Management Co Ltd, over concerns that CFIUS would stop the deal. Last week, a group of 46 U.S. government departments or agencies and chaired by the Treasury, does not publish its decisions or its reasoning for them, advisers say inside knowledge and connections are important to navigate what outsiders often see as a “black-box” review process.

China led the pack of countries whose planned U.S. For instance, Mario Mancuso, a partner at law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP who formerly sat on CFIUS as undersecretary of commerce for industry and security, now typically advises companies. If the initial reaction is hostile, then this can avoid the embarrassment and cost of announcing a deal that is later scuppered, said Mark Plotkin, a CFIUS expert with the law firm Covington & Burling LLP.


Because this interagency panel, comprising 16 U.S. acquisitions and investments in 2014 were probed for U.S. government agencies and corporations, which U.S. Deloitte declined to comment. companies, from the Chicago Stock Exchange to makers of high-end semiconductors, has created a vibrant business for a small circuit of Washington insiders who advise on how to get cross-border deals approved by the U.S. security implications, making it the most scrutinized country by CFIUS, according to the latest CFIUS annual report, which was released last Friday. government.

There have been 22 M&A transactions announced in the United States so far in 2016 involving Chinese acquirers, worth a combined $23 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data. But he also represented some investors in pork producer Smithfield Foods when China’s Shuanghui International made a successful bid for the company in 2013.


All three of the former officials declined to comment for this story.

Among the former officials who use their CFIUS experience in advisory work are Anne Salladin, who reviewed some 500 deals that went to CFIUS during her 20 years at the Treasury. That is a massive increase from 88 deals worth $13 billion for all of 2015, and 88 deals for $7 billion in 2014.

Traditionally, Chinese companies had been mistrustful of advisors, or unwilling to pay for them, some investment bankers and lawyers say. Semiconductors form electronic cores for a long list of military systems, including drones, guided missiles and bombs.

“Some of the law firms specializing in this stuff are excellent, while others sign companies on for terms that are utterly unimplementable,” said Accenture consultant Andrew Walker, who helps companies comply with conditions imposed by CFIUS.

Baker worked on the acquisition of Motorola Mobility by Chinese PC and smartphone maker Lenovo Group (0992.HK) in 2014, while Daly advised U.S. officials that a transaction is not threatening, as any concerns they harbor can trickle down to CFIUS officials, according to industry sources. In the case of Western Digital, the company had told investors that it believed Unisplendour acquiring a 15 percent non-controlling stake would not be subject to a CFIUS review But CFIUS informed Western Digital it would review the transaction nonetheless, prompting Unisplendour to pull out.

By Diane Bartz and Greg Roumeliotis


Not all CFIUS advisors are hired to help a deal go through. Last month, Philips (PHG.AS) scrapped a $3.3 billion deal to sell a division which makes LED lights to Chinese investors also because of CFIUS concerns.

A good CFIUS advisor will figure out what issues might crop up in a certain deal – such as cutting edge chip technology or Pentagon contracts — and discuss how to best handle these with the agencies most likely to be concerned, said Plotkin.

Whitney Smith, a Treasury spokesperson, declined to comment on CFIUS’s relationship with company advisors.

For a graphic showing Chinese acquisitions of U.S. officials have in recent years joined the ranks of lawyers, consultants and lobbyists that have emerged as key brokers in trying to get Chinese acquisitions or investments in U.S. So-called “mitigation measures” can range from asset sales to ensuring that only U.S. officials and security software companies have blamed on China.

It is not unlike a preliminary meeting that antitrust lawyers might request with the Justice Department or Federal Trade Commission about an antitrust review of a merger, the lawyers said.

U.S. citizens perform certain tasks. Sorting out who among the advisors have connections and insight into CFIUS is not always easy.

Adding to the tensions are attacks on China’s trade policy, and in particular its surplus with the U.S., by Donald Trump, who is leading the race to be the Republican candidate in November’s presidential election.

(Additional reporting by Elizabeth Dilts in New York; Editing by Soyoung Kim and Martin Howell)

Law firms such as Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP and Covington & Burling offer to provide insight into how CFIUS will view a deal, tapping into their working relationships with CFIUS officials at several government departments. Treasury deputy assistant secretary for investment security and policy Nova Daly, now with the law firm Wiley Rein LLP, and former Department of Homeland Security assistant secretary for policy Stewart Baker, now with law firm Steptoe & Johnson LLP, according to the websites of their employers. companies by number and value, see

Before a deal is announced, the advisors will often seek to gauge its chances for CFIUS approval by holding a preliminary meeting with key officials. Other officials include former U.S.

. Skadden declined comment for this story.

To be sure, even with expert advice, companies can get it wrong. No official data is available for 2015.

Another lawyer involved in CFIUS work, who spoke privately, said that he gives a 45-minute presentation to Pentagon officials and then carefully examines the questions asked, as well as body language, to judge their level of discomfort with a particular deal.

COTTAGE INDUSTRY The cottage industry that has developed around CFIUS includes a wide array of actors.

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK A spate of proposed Chinese takeovers of U.S. companies.

A CFIUS review typically lasts between one and three months and can cost from as little as $50,000 to as much as $1 million for more complicated or controversial transactions, according to a CFIUS expert who has shepherded deals through the process.

Several former U.S